results - 2022

There are many defensible ways to evaluate success in rankings.

The CB Corner, which serves as inspiration for this work, evaluates the accuracy (% of recommendations who exceed projections) and massive hit rate (% of accurate calls who double projections) for recommended plays.

    • I mimic this exactly using the FantasySharks projections available on MFL but also add in a whiff rate noting what % of my recommended plays put up a 0 for the week given how much of a risk 0s are for DT.

Now, you might be thinking 'why are you taking a victory lap if Jordan Elliott scores 9 pts when he was only projected for 5.34?' or you might be more generous and think 'why should you punish yourself as "inaccurate" if David Onyemata was one of your picks and he scores 9.25 and not 9.4 (or better)?'

    • To answer these kinds of criticisms, I conduct another measure of accuracy by looking at the performance of my four tiers in terms of average, % over 10 pts, % over 20 pts, and % with 0s.

Finally, FantasyPros uses a formula based on top player performance relative to the performance of a player that the ranker has in each of those slots (i.e. how does DT1 typically perform relative to who an expert had ranked as fantasy DT1 for the week).

    • I don't know what data FPros uses for performance benchmarks so I utilize actual DT scoring for the week. For example, if DT1 for the week puts up 52.15 pts, I compare this output to my top ranked DT for the week so that a smaller score is better.

    • DTs are the TEs of IDP and FPros evaluates expert accuracy based on the top 15 TEs each week so we will look at the top 15 DT.

    • Since FPros does not have a Weekly True Position, NPLB, DT accuracy contest, I found my own competition..."Expert X" (now revealed below to be PFF's own Jon Macri - thank you to Jon for allowing me to share this) and FantasySharks weekly top 15 projected DTs available on MFL.