DT Deep Dive

***2023 Week 13 Rankings***

Welcome to the Week 13 edition of the DT Deep Dive and welcome to byemageddon part 2!

I'm generally happy with the model but it can always be improved. For the season Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Tier 3 > Tier 4 across all 4 metrics I track. Accuracy against projections sits at 66% with a 29% massive hit rate. The top end of my rankings are outperforming "Expert X" and FantasySharks in terms of % of top players identified and second in terms of avg pts, and are closing in on third in FantasyPros-style accuracy after a solid Week 12. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.

Full details on my methodology are available here. I am monitoring model performance weekly and last week was the the model (top to bottom) had a weak correlation of .286 with performance largely due to some very unexpected names near the top of the week for points. I am only making one small change and that is to take the last 5 weeks of pts allowed by position data rather than season long to better account for teams that are trending up or down in terms of DT points allowed recently.

Despite byes, Week 13 features 40 recommended plays and another 67 sorted in the avoid tier.

Good luck!

Week 13 DT Streamers (outside the top 38 rostered on MFL)

Week 11- Alim McNeil (8.75) and Dante Stills (10.5), Season-long average at 13.9.

Alim McNeil, DET

Feel free to fade me here once again but the grades, snap share, and near misses have me rating him as DT3 overall this week which is too good to pass up. Last week was a bit of a letdown from a fantasy perspective but McNeil posted a season-high 5 QB pressures per PFF and we just need one of these to convert for fantasy viability!

D.J. Reader, CIN

Full disclosure, I am a Bengals fan and had high hopes for Reader coming into the year. While the season has been a disappointment from a fantasy perspective, Reader is posting solid grades and has a consistent snap share that keep him primed to be a sneaky good play any given Monday night.

Week 13 DT Rankings

Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).

Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.

Here is the full list of 107 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.


TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)


Aaron Donald LA

Derrick Brown CAR

Alim McNeill DET

Quinnen Williams NYJ

Christian Wilkins MIA

David Onyemata ATL

Chris Jones KC

Jeffery Simmons TEN

DeForest Buckner IND

Jonathan Allen WAS

Cameron Heyward PIT - Heyward is back to a full complement of snaps (81% in Week 12) which should result in the reliable fantasy production we have come to know him for. 

Leonard Williams SEA

Jalen Carter PHI - Monitor Cox and Williams' injuries. Carter can put up big numbers on limited snaps but if one or both are out, his opportunity share has him primed for a big game.


TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)


Javon Hargrave SF

Calais Campbell ATL - The Jets have given up the most fantasy PPG to DL over the past 5 weeks (#1 to DE which is where Campbell often lines up) which boosts his stock this week.

D.J. Reader CIN

Jarran Reed SEA

Zach Allen DEN

Vita Vea TB - 0's happen and they such when they do but Vea has had a highly consistent season outside of last week which makes me comfortable rolling him back out there this week.

Kenny Clark GB

Daron Payne WAS

Jordan Davis PHI

Arik Armstead SF

Denico Autry TEN - Autry's slow march up my board continues as I lag behind in my rankings of him relative to most others. His pressure to sack ratio is still among the league leaders and seems primed for regression but there are many worse options than the season-long DT4.

Osa Odighizuwa DAL


TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).


B.J. Hill CIN

Maliek Collins HST

Larry Ogunjobi PIT

Christian Barmore NE

Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC

Calijah Kancey TB - A tier 3 staple of recent weeks put up a DT1 performance last week and is one of several impressive rookies at the position.

Dalvin Tomlinson CLV

Kobie Turner LA - I was off by one week in projecting Turner's breakout when I named him a Week 11 streamer. Turner made up for Donald's  lack of production last week finishing behind only Jeffery Simmons in points last week. Unlike some other high scorers, Turner has the talent and opportnity to continue to produce.

Davon Godchaux NE

Keeanu Benton PIT

Dre'Mont Jones SEA

Zach Sieler MIA

Nathan Shepherd NO

T.J. Slaton GB

Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ


TIER 4 - AVOID (mostly players with snap counts too low to rely on)


Maurice Hurst CLV

Roy Robertson-Harris JAX

Raekwon Davis MIA

Austin Johnson LAC

Kentavius Street ATL

Dante Stills ARZ

Chauncey Golston DAL

Milton Williams PHI

Mario Edwards Jr. SEA

Shelby Harris CLV

Javon Kinlaw SF

Armon Watts PIT

Quinton Jefferson NYJ

Teair Tart TEN

Taven Bryan IND

Folorunso Fatukasi JAX

Bobby Brown III LA

Morgan Fox LAC

William Gholston TB

Logan Hall TB

Mike Greene TB

Sheldon Rankins HST

Khalil Davis HST

Malcolm Roach NO

Khalen Saunders NO

Karl Brooks GB

Devonte Wyatt GB

John Cominsky DET

Kevin Givens SF

Roy Lopez ARZ

Mazi Smith DAL

Fletcher Cox PHI

Zach Carter CIN

Jonathan Harris DEN

Montravius Adams PIT

Solomon Thomas NYJ

Greg Gaines TB

Kurt Hinish HST

Bryan Bresee NO

Tershawn Wharton KC

D.J. Jones DEN

Mike Purcell DEN

Kyle Peko TEN

Keion White NE

Neville Gallimore DAL

Johnathan Hankins DAL

Shy Tuttle CAR

Nick Williams LAC

Nick Thurman CAR

DeShawn Williams CAR

Eric Johnson IND

Colby Wooden GB

Jordan Elliott CLV

Deatrich Wise Jr. NE

John Ridgeway WAS

Benito Jones DET

Kevin Strong ARZ

Jonah Williams LA

Derrick Nnadi KC

Ta'Quon Graham ATL

Leki Fotu ARZ

LaBryan Ray CAR

Adam Gotsis JAX

Angelo Blackson JAX

Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX

Lawrence Guy Sr. NE

DeMarvin Leal PIT