DT Deep Dive
***2023 Week 6 Results***
Welcome the Week 6 the DT Deep Dive accountability report! More detailed results coming tomorrow when I update and share season-long results but here are some highlights:
Tier 1 was the top performing group in three out of four metrics despite a very strong showing by Tier 3 players.
A new season-high in unadjusted accuracy (71.74% of calls beat projections) with the massive hit rate staying above 30%.
Despite 11 of the top 15 scoring DT being recommended plays, the very top of my rankings did not perform as well as "Expert X" or FantasySharks (the latter of which had a very nice week).
***2023 Week 6 Rankings***
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of the DT Deep Dive! Only two teams on bye this week so there are plenty of great DT options out there this week.
For the season, the model is performing well although the very top end has been underperforming from a fantasy standpoint making the gap between Tier 1 (Ideal) and Tier 2 (Solid) smaller than ever. Overall though, recommended plays across all tiers are meeting/exceeding projections nearly 68% of the time with a 30% massive hit rate (using a slightly forgiving accuracy model). Finally, the top end of my ratings are still outperforming both "Expert X" and FantasySharks across 2 of 3 accuracy measures (average and % correct) but I would be in 3rd place among the 3 of us in terms of the FantasyPros accuracy score. Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.
Week 6 sees a rookie moving up through the tiers, an old favorite streaming option as an ideal play, and some exploitable matchups boosting some old favorites!
Good luck!
Week 6 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)
Week 5 - David Onyemata (7) and DaQuon Jones (INJ), Season-long average at 13.9.
David Onyemata, ATL
Still just outside of the top 32 most rostered on MFL, Onyemata had a down week 5 with 2 tackles but is playing 76% of snaps, is PFF's #12 graded DT and ranks 19th in DT fantasy scoring.
Alim McNeil, DET
Making is first appearance this year is longtime streamer stable, Alim McNeil. Coming off 3 straight 10+ point games, grading out as DT #7 on PFF, and playing 72% of snaps has me ready to be hurt again.
Week 6 DT Rankings
Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).
Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.
Here is the full list of 117 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.
TIER 1 - IDEAL (guys you would start in any format and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT)
Dexter Lawrence II NYG - 18 pressures, 0 sacks. Only Quinnen Williams has a less lucky ratio (20/0) but Lawrence still posts elite run defense grades and 19 combined tackles give him a nice floor.
David Onyemata ATL
Chris Jones KC
Christian Wilkins MIA
Aaron Donald LA
Jeffery Simmons TEN
DeForest Buckner IND
TIER 2 - SOLID (players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group)
Quinnen Williams NYJ
Ed Oliver BUF - Oliver shined last week in DaQuon Jones' absence and has the opportunity to feast on a Giants line that has been performing badly this season.
Grover Stewart IND
Leonard Williams NYG
Alim McNeill DET
Jalen Carter PHI - Carter made the most of Fletcher Cox's absence last week posting a career high in snaps which translated to his highest scoring week yet. Monitor Cox's status this week but Carter is looking very, very good.
Jonathan Allen WAS
Derrick Brown CAR
Michael Pierce BLT - Pierce is quietly putting together a nice season in Baltimore as PFF's 25th highest graded DT and now has 3/5 weeks at a 62%+ snap share.
Zach Allen DEN
Grady Jarrett ATL
Daron Payne WAS
Vita Vea TB
Javon Hargrave SF
TIER 3 - SOLID - DEEPER (mostly relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches).
Arik Armstead SF
Denico Autry TEN - Autry might be a DE in some formats but is putting up solid grades, great snap shares, and consistent fantasy output (outside of last week). Monitor his groin injury but if he is fully healthy, he can put up great numbers.
D.J. Reader CIN
Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC
Maliek Collins HST - Collins has the 3rd most pressures without a sack this season at 14 but an abysmal 29.6 run defense grade this season.
Zach Sieler MIA
Harrison Phillips MIN
B.J. Hill CIN
Justin Madubuike BLT
Roy Robertson-Harris JAX
DeMarcus Walker CHI - Another player who might be a DE depending on where you play, but Walker is playing a high snap share (73% week 5, 81% week 4) with good pressure rates and a matchup that could result in a high number of defensive snaps.
Sheldon Rankins HST
Calais Campbell ATL
Jonah Williams LA
Shy Tuttle CAR
Jonathan Bullard MIN
Jonathan Harris DEN
Jarran Reed SEA - The Bengals are still having some issues protecting a healing Joe Burrow making Reed and his 72.7 pass rush grade (per PFF) an interesting play this week.
Logan Hall TB
Kobie Turner LA
Justin Jones CHI
Milton Williams PHI
Maurice Hurst CLV - Hurst is the only recommended play who played less than 50% of snaps in his team's last game but the highly touted Michigan product is putting up elite PFF grades (overall DT5) warranting the dart throw this week.
Osa Odighizuwa DAL
Deatrich Wise Jr. NE
Dalvin Tomlinson CLV
TIER 4 - AVOID (players who did not have strong enough snap counts in Week 1 to warrant consideration in leagues other than Best Ball that you are managing in-season)
Andrew Billings CHI
Kevin Strong ARZ
Johnathan Hankins DAL
Chauncey Golston DAL
Keion White NE
Bilal Nichols LV
Travis Jones BLT
Lawrence Guy Sr. NE
Adam Butler LV
Khalil Davis HST
Shelby Harris CLV
Javon Kinlaw SF
Kevin Givens SF
Malcolm Roach NO
Dante Stills ARZ
Mario Edwards Jr. SEA
Dre'Mont Jones SEA
Bryan Bresee NO
John Jenkins LV
Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ
Teair Tart TEN
Morgan Fox LAC
Eric Johnson II IND
Taven Bryan IND
Mazi Smith DAL
Christian Barmore NE
Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI
Jordan Davis PHI
Fletcher Cox PHI
Nathan Shepherd NO
Khalen Saunders NO
Mike Purcell DEN
Austin Johnson LAC
Davon Godchaux NE
Jerry Tillery LV
Zach Carter CIN
Josh Tupou CIN
Benito Jones DET
Broderick Washington Jr. BLT
Bobby Brown III LA
Kyle Peko TEN
Nick Williams LAC
Greg Gaines TB
Mike Greene TB
Neville Gallimore DAL
DeShawn Williams CAR
Zacch Pickens CHI
Kurt Hinish HST
Quinton Jefferson NYJ
Solomon Thomas NYJ
Al Woods NYJ
Jordan Elliott CLV
D.J. Jones DEN
John Cominsky DET
Raekwon Davis MIA
Tim Settle BUF
Jordan Phillips BUF
Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG
A'Shawn Robinson NYG
Dean Lowry MIN
Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX
Folorunso Fatukasi JAX
Angelo Blackson JAX
Adam Gotsis JAX
Leki Fotu ARZ
John Ridgeway WAS
Nick Thurman CAR
Derrick Nnadi KC
Tershawn Wharton KC
Matt Dickerson KC