DT Deep Dive

***2023 Week 4 Results***

With Week 4 behind us, let's look back and see how the rankings performed with details on each metric and last season's results available here:

Another relatively down week for DT scoring, the rankings still performed well with accuracy close to 60% ( a new season-high massive hit rate), the top end of my rankings just barely outperforming my two referents, and still a sizeable gap between my reccommended plays (Tiers 1-3) and my avoids (Tier 4).

PERFORMANCE BY TIER

Tier 3 surprisingly outperformed Tiers 1 and 2 in some metrics this week with a sizeable and persistent gap between the top 3 tiers and the bottom tier. 

ACCURACY AGAINST PROJECTIONS

Dipped just under 60% accuracy this week but the massive hit rate was again above 30%. Once again this week, only 1 recommended plays who put up a 0. 

FANTASY PROS ACCURACY

This was another very difficult top group to project across the board with myself, Expert X, and FantasySharks all posting season lows across all metrics. I guess I should be happy to be the least wrong this week?

***2023 Week 4 Rankings***

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the DT Deep Dive! We are off to a strong start with the Ideal (18.87) and Solid (14.42) Tiers scoring well and the Solid (Deeper) Tier outperforming Avoids in every key metric (avg, % of players over 10 pts, 20 pts, and avoiding 0s).  Recommended plays across all tiers are outperforming projections nearly 60% of the time with a 27% massive hit rate. Finally, my ratings are outperforming  both "Expert X" and FantasySharks across 2 of 3 accuracy measures (average and % correct). Full 2023 season and weekly results available here.

Moving into Week 4, I am now relying only on 2023 data (with adjustments for snap count anomalies due to injuries, blowouts, etc). I'm waiting one more week to do a new deep data dive to working better or worse and adjust variables since I'll have a nice amount of data. This week I highlight a record 10 names to watch across the tiers to give more of a peek behind the curtain!

Ideal Tier is guys you would start in any format (and even consider in DL leagues that don't explicitly require DT).

Solid Tier is players are also expected to perform well and you can usually start to find some potential streamers in this group.

Solid (Deeper) Tier is mostly going to be relevant in 16 team leagues, leagues where you have to start 2 DT, or leagues with very deep benches.

Avoid Tier is mostly players who did not have strong enough snap counts in Week 1 to warrant consideration in leagues other than Best Ball that you are managing in-season.

Good luck!

Week 4 DT Streamers (outside the top 30 rostered on MFL)

Week 3 - Harrison Phillips (7.5) and D.J. Reader (18.3), Season-long average at 13.5.

David Onyemata, ATL

Three weeks into his first season with the Falcons, Onyemata is putting up the 6th highest DT grade according to PFF (4th highest pass rush grade). He is also settling into a respectable 60% snap share.

Arik Armstead, SFO

Armstead is an overlooked DT playing on a great defense. 9 pressures with 0 sacks this season has him off many rosters but great play plus a 72% snap share last week lands him near the top of the streamer options.

Week 4 DT Rankings

Disclaimer 1: My model is performing well, but don't take these as gospel. Sometimes I even start a lower ranked guy who is more proven if the rest of my roster is in a place where I need to be risk averse (especially this early in the season).

Disclaimer 2: Check for guys who are out. There may even be 1-2 ranked guys on IR if they had enough snaps this year. I'll catch some of these when doing data entry but not all.

Here is the full list of 171 DTs rated this week. Note - tiers are sorted so higher in tier = better.


TIER 1 - IDEAL

Chris Jones KC

Derrick Brown CAR

Dexter Lawrence II NYG - 13 pressures, 0 sacks...something has got to give soon but Lawrence is still averaging nearly 15 PPG keeping him very high in my rankings.

Aaron Donald LA

Daron Payne WAS

Kenny Clark GB

Jonathan Allen WAS

Leonard Williams NYG

Harrison Phillips MIN - After just missing the Ideal Tier cut last week, Phillips joins the elite group in spite of a down fantasy week. If his pass rush grades were to get closer to his peak with the Bills in 2019, he could ascend even further.


TIER 2 - SOLID

Quinnen Williams NYJ

DeForest Buckner IND

David Onyemata ATL

Javon Hargrave SF

Jeffery Simmons TEN

Calais Campbell ATL

Roy Robertson-Harris JAX - RRH played an elite (for DTs at least) 73% of snaps for the Jaguars last week. This number combined with great run defense and serviceable pass rush makes him a worthy consideration in many leagues.

Arik Armstead SF

Christian Barmore NE

Grady Jarrett ATL

Grover Stewart IND

B.J. Hill CIN

Christian Wilkins MIA - Simply put, Wilkins has not played up to his standards this year outside of a boom week against the Pats in Week 2. I suspect he will move up next week with a good match against the Giants, but I'm a little more cautious this week.

Kobie Turner LA - Some of you might be saying, Kobie who? One of the Rams three 3rd round pick this year is establishing himself as Aaron Donald's running mate on the Rams d-line. I might be a week or two early here but he is a name to watch.


TIER 3 - SOLID (DEEPER LEAGUES)

Justin Madubuike BLT

Fletcher Cox PHI

John Jenkins LV

Andrew Billings CHI

Byron Young LV

DaQuan Jones BUF

Zach Allen DEN

Montravius Adams PIT

Jonathan Harris DEN

Larry Ogunjobi PIT

Zach Sieler MIA

Jalen Carter PHI - Despite an incredible start, I'm still not totally comfortable relying on Carter simply due to the rotation in Philly. The defensive line should be able to put up multiple sacks against the Commanders but guessing who will make those play among their 7 viable options is too much for me! 

Jonathan Ledbetter ARZ

Tershawn Wharton KC

Nathan Shepherd NO

Javon Kinlaw SF - Kinlaw has 10 pressures with 0 sacks playing behind Hargrave and Armstead. Any uptick in opportunity and he could very well play up to his draft capital.

Maurice Hurst CLV

Justin Jones CHI

Mario Edwards Jr. SEA

D.J. Reader CIN - Still a good play, but a dip in playing time coupled with a decline in grades has me a little concerned despite registering the sack last week.

Michael Pierce BLT

Osa Odighizuwa DAL - I know I'm later to the party than some on Odi, but the snap share (39%/51%/54%) is encouraging enough to place him in the deeper plays tier for me.

John Cominsky DET

Ed Oliver BUF - Great player (which is why he is still Tier 3), but I hate the matchup with Miami this week. Miami has given up the 5th least points to DTs this season. If anyone can buck this trend, it is Oliver but there are many safer plays to me this week. 

Logan Hall TB

Jordan Davis PHI


TIER 4 - AVOID

Keion White NE

Alim McNeill DET

Jarran Reed SEA

Kevin Strong ARZ

Dalvin Tomlinson CLV

Denico Autry TEN

DeMarcus Walker CHI

Keeanu Benton PIT

Vita Vea TB

Greg Gaines TB

Jay Tufele CIN

Travis Jones BLT

Jordon Riley NYG

Jihad Ward NYG

Marlon Tuipulotu PHI

Shelby Harris CLV

Teair Tart TEN

Deatrich Wise Jr. NE

Armon Watts PIT

Shy Tuttle CAR

Chauncey Golston DAL

Johnathan Hankins DAL

Leki Fotu ARZ

Josh Paschal DET

Jerry Tillery LV

Maliek Collins HST

Sebastian Joseph-Day LAC

Taven Bryan IND

Eric Johnson IND

Myles Adams SEA

Cameron Young SEA

Devonte Wyatt GB

Karl Brooks GB

Colby Wooden GB

D.J. Davidson NYG

Milton Williams PHI

Kevin Givens SF

Mike Purcell DEN

Daniel Ekuale NE

Jonah Williams LA

Earnest Brown IV LA

Calijah Kancey TB

William Gholston TB

Khalen Saunders NO

Bryan Bresee NO

Da'Shawn Hand MIA

Morgan Fox LAC

A'Shawn Robinson NYG

Bilal Nichols LV

Mike Morris SEA

Dre'Mont Jones SEA

Jaquelin Roy MIN

Brent Urban BLT

T.J. Slaton GB

LaBryan Ray CAR

DeShawn Williams CAR

Neville Gallimore DAL

Mazi Smith DAL

Abdullah Anderson WAS

Carlos Watkins ARZ

Ben Stille ARZ

Kentavius Street PHI

Jordan Elliott CLV

Matt Henningsen DEN

D.J. Jones DEN

Elijah Garcia DEN

Jaleel Johnson TEN

Kyle Peko TEN

Sam Roberts NE

Gervon Dexter Sr. CHI

Desjuan Johnson LA

Bobby Brown III LA

Timmy Horne ATL

Quinton Jefferson NYJ

Solomon Thomas NYJ

Mike Greene TB

Hassan Ridgeway HST

Sheldon Rankins HST

Kurt Hinish HST

Khalil Davis HST

Malcolm Roach NO

Josh Tupou CIN

Nick Williams LAC

Scott Matlock LAC

Isaiah Buggs DET

Levi Onwuzurike DET

Benito Jones DET

Neil Farrell Jr. KC

Keondre Coburn KC

Derrick Nnadi KC

Jonathan Bullard MIN

Khyiris Tonga MIN

Dean Lowry MIN

Nick Thurman CAR

John Ridgeway WAS

Rakeem Nunez-Roches NYG

L.J. Collier ARZ

Dante Stills ARZ

Folorunso Fatukasi JAX

Adam Gotsis JAX

Tyler Lacy JAX

Angelo Blackson JAX

Jeremiah Ledbetter JAX

Naquan Jones TEN

Davon Godchaux NE

Lawrence Guy Sr. NE

Zacch Pickens CHI

DeMarvin Leal PIT

Isaiahh Loudermilk PIT

Larrell Murchison LA

Ta'Quon Graham ATL

Albert Huggins ATL

Al Woods NYJ

Adam Butler LV

Tim Settle BUF

Jordan Phillips BUF

Michael Dogbe HST

Zach Carter CIN

Brandon Pili MIA

Raekwon Davis MIA

Austin Johnson LAC